Monday, April 18, 2016
Race to the TOP always leaves people at the BOTTOM
It's amusing and sad at the same time to watch the circus and have to take part in the center ring when things are like they are.
Product is short, mostly, people are planting too much too fast, Prices are goofy.
What makes it worse is the tendency to think this will go on forever. Or the occasional sale to an entity that has no common sense in buying indicates the market.
Just because one guy bought 100 trees 2" at $250 doesn't mean everyone will. So the insanity ensues.
Waiting right now is the best strategy. Wait until things get normalized. Yes the day of the $95 2" Red Maple is gone.. but so is the fantasy of the $250 2".
I have people ask me how long before we enter into the next inevitable cycle down in price up in supply. I have been saying 3-5 years with emphasis on the 3.
So enjoy but don't extrapolate this to be a permanent condition. Save some money and in 5 years at the bottom, buy a bunch of smaller liners and plant like crazy. You'll be ready next time.
OH, and how do I know all this? First we do this all the time in the nursery trade. Second the economy isn't that robust. IF we elect a conservative to the White House and keep the House and Senate there will be a restart and it will be painful. That will put a clamp on the economy for a little while.. THEN if we are smart.. it will be katie bar the door for the next move.
Cue the clown theme