Thursday, March 12, 2015
A TURN AROUND
Its been a while since I last posted. In fact a year.
Things are really different today. It's a new time. A new cycle.
Product is very short.. because while business was poor, no one planted anything. They just harvested. There are still some large trees in the market.. but not as many.
Containers are short but since the cycle is so fast, not that short.
Now we enter this phase and as always happens new planting will blossom everywhere until in a few years we will go back into surplus. The booming times right now have less to do with a robust market but that thing are so short.
There are still nurseries just squeaking by. I am contacted by banks who are asking what the collateral is worth on the nursery they are financing. I go and make an appraisal of the stock.
The optimum size in the bell shaped curve of demand is from 2-3" That's where sales take place, that's where money is made. When product is too small, or when it is way overgrown (large) there is a much weaker demand. It is a bell shaped curve the top of which is 2 1/2" caliper.
Below 1" B&B there is almost no market and above 5" also almost no market. The mythology that I'll leave it in the ground an it will become more valuable simply doesn't work.
The market now takes better marketing... they won't just COME to you. So do well. Sell well. Turn the product when it's ready..