Tuesday, October 25, 2016
I have been traveling a great deal on assignment. That means that I get to tour nurseries everywhere. I also get an inside look at production.
Here's a truth some may not want to hear.
There are a LOT of young trees in the ground right now. I saw whips to 1 1/2" everywhere. The crop looks good. There is land being put into production that has been out for the last 5 years. Old overgrown trees are being removed by bulldozer. The land is being reclaimed and new stock is going in.
In Tennessee's McMinnville area which had been pronounced dead, is very much alive. And expanding.
And the quality is up a great deal. All this means that pressure on supply that kept product in shortage is about to change. We are about to see that old bugaboo surplus hit the fan again. Not for a year or two but that train is already on the track and moving.
So, do your best, keep up the narrative but be ready to move with the market as it moves. It will.
Bob Dylan just won the Nobel Price for Literature. Well deserved. I"m a fan. But he has a comment on the nursery stock shortage... "The times they are a changin"
Saturday, October 1, 2016
Lots of product being moved. But the pipeline is filling up. I see a train a-coming, coming round the bend. There are going to be more sales and consolidations.
Recently I was involved in the Marketing and Sale of the Former Anna Nursery to Schowpe
Brothers Tree Farms. It was a 6 month project. From time to time I am hired as a nursery marketing arm.
I think the next several months will see a shift. The election in a bit more than a month will tell a tale. I won't tell you who to vote for, but I want to see America Great.... again.
Keep your eyes open and your ears clear. We are about to go thru a transition.
Monday, April 18, 2016
It's amusing and sad at the same time to watch the circus and have to take part in the center ring when things are like they are.
Product is short, mostly, people are planting too much too fast, Prices are goofy.
What makes it worse is the tendency to think this will go on forever. Or the occasional sale to an entity that has no common sense in buying indicates the market.
Just because one guy bought 100 trees 2" at $250 doesn't mean everyone will. So the insanity ensues.
Waiting right now is the best strategy. Wait until things get normalized. Yes the day of the $95 2" Red Maple is gone.. but so is the fantasy of the $250 2".
I have people ask me how long before we enter into the next inevitable cycle down in price up in supply. I have been saying 3-5 years with emphasis on the 3.
So enjoy but don't extrapolate this to be a permanent condition. Save some money and in 5 years at the bottom, buy a bunch of smaller liners and plant like crazy. You'll be ready next time.
OH, and how do I know all this? First we do this all the time in the nursery trade. Second the economy isn't that robust. IF we elect a conservative to the White House and keep the House and Senate there will be a restart and it will be painful. That will put a clamp on the economy for a little while.. THEN if we are smart.. it will be katie bar the door for the next move.
Cue the clown theme